As the holiday season approaches, Icelandic auction prices for Atlantic cod have surged to record highs, driven by constrained supply and robust seasonal demand. Current trends and historical data provide valuable insights into what stakeholders can expect during Week 51, 2024, and the dynamics shaping this high-demand period.
What’s Happening?
1. Sharp Price Increases for Most Size Groups
Auction prices in December 2024 are significantly higher than in previous years:
- 5 kg and Above: Week 50, 2024, prices reached $4.88/kg—a 30.1% increase over 2023 and 60% higher than in 2022.
- 2–5 kg: Prices climbed to $3.77/kg in Week 50, reflecting a 31.8% year-on-year rise.
- Less than 2 kg: Smaller cod rebounded to $3.03/kg in Week 50, up 40.3% from 2023.
2. Declining Auction Volumes
Auction volumes in 2024 are significantly lower compared to December 2023:
- 5 kg and Above: Down by 81.9% in Week 49.
- 2–5 kg: Fell by 91.8% in Week 49.
- Less than 2 kg: Declined by 45.8% in Week 49.
3. Buyers Compete for Limited Supplies
With the holiday season underway, demand for Icelandic cod is peaking, particularly for larger fish. Buyers, including exporters and retailers, are competing for limited supplies to meet holiday market expectations.
Trends to Watch in Week 51, 2024
Expected Prices for Week 51, 2024
Based on historical trends and current year-on-year growth rates, these estimates provide a indicator of market dynamics:
5 kg and Above:
- Expected Price:$5.63–$5.88/kg
- What’s Driving This? Larger cod remains the crown jewel of the Icelandic market, commanding the highest prices due to its quality and preference in premium export and holiday markets. Compared to 2023, a 25–30% price increase is likely, reflecting continued strong demand.
2–5 kg:
- Expected Price: $4.96–$5.14/kg
- What’s Driving This? This mid-range size is critical for retail and processing, where consistent demand drives steady price growth. A 30–35% price rise from 2023 is anticipated, as buyers compete to secure limited supplies.
Less than 2 kg:
- Expected Price: $3.62–$3.77/kg
- What’s Driving This? Smaller cod is experiencing a rebound after a price slump in 2023. Despite its lower market share, a 20–25% price increase is expected, driven by processing and retail needs.
The Oceans of Data Perspective
December 2024 is shaping up as a record-breaking month for Icelandic Atlantic cod auctions. Robust holiday demand, constrained supply, and the premium positioning of Icelandic cod are driving significant price increases across all size groups. While prices may stabilize after the holiday peak, current trends suggest sustained high values heading into 2025.
As the market evolves, stakeholders who remain adaptable and informed can maximize opportunities in this competitive environment.
Stay tuned to Oceans of Data for further updates and insights as the season unfolds!
