OceansEx: Cod Index

What's going on here?

Oceans of Data is excited to present OceansEx, an auction index providing fresh insight into the Atlantic cod market in Iceland and Norway. As Iceland approaches its new quota year on September 1st, 2024, with the prospect of significant quota reductions in 2025 (expected to be as high as 30% in the Barents Sea), the first eight months of 2024 are crucial to analyze. The Cod Index tracks auction prices for Atlantic cod in both markets.

What does this mean?

Iceland's stabilizing market

• OceansEx: the Cod Index for Iceland in 2024 averages around 101.95, indicating stability with minor growth.
• Price development: the average price of Atlantic cod in Iceland peaked recently at $4.23/kg in early August 2024.
• Inflation YoY: dropped sharply from 30.54% in 2023 to just 3.22% in 2024, setting a stable stage for the upcoming quota year.

Norway's seasonal trends and looming quota cuts

• OceansEx: the Cod Index increased from 97.68 in 2023 to 99.02 in 2024. Most landings occur in the first four months of the year.
• Price development: average prices peaked around $5.09/kg in March 2024, with volatility expected as quota cuts loom.
• Inflation YoY: decreased from 15.36% in 2023 to 12.60% in 2024, though anticipated quota cuts could reverse the trend.

Broader market impact

The anticipated 2025 quota reductions will drive supply chain disruptions, increase demand for substitute products like haddock or pollock, and affect production from fillets to processed goods across the value chain.

Conclusion

2024 reflects a market moving toward greater stability, with reduced inflation and modest price improvements. But the expected 2025 quota cuts in the Barents Sea will have widespread impacts. Staying informed is more important than ever.