Salmon Export Shakeup: Fillet Decline and the Whole Fish Boom in 2024

What's going on here?

Oceans of Data has updated its salmon export predictions from Norway to the U.S., a key consumer market. Comparing the first eight months of 2024 to 2023, we see a consistent downward trend in export volumes, even though certain months showed a slight uptick.

The most notable trend is the anticipated sharp drop in salmon export volumes from Norway starting in October, aligning with forecasts of reduced supply, potential logistical bottlenecks, and shifting market dynamics. The summer surge is not expected to continue, suggesting tighter U.S. supply from Norway toward year-end.

Whole salmon holding strong

Despite the overall decline, U.S. fresh whole salmon shipments from all markets increased in 2024, rising from 86,855 tonnes in the first eight months of 2023 to 90,844 tonnes in 2024. Whole salmon is appealing for U.S. businesses because it can be processed locally into fillets or value-added products.

Decline in fresh and frozen fillets

• Fresh fillets from all markets dropped from 145,452 tonnes (Jan-Aug 2023) to 133,002 tonnes (2024).
• Frozen fillets declined from 82,146 tonnes to 72,646 tonnes.
• Frozen whole salmon imports increased, possibly reflecting demand for more affordable, longer-lasting products.

What this means for you

• Farmers: rising demand for whole salmon is an opportunity to shift focus toward high-quality whole fish as fillet demand declines.
• Processors: adjust strategies, partner with U.S. companies, and align with the preference for locally processed fish.
• Sales professionals: tighter supply and potential price increases call for sharper pricing strategies and clear communication with U.S. buyers.

In summary

With a significant decline in Norwegian fillet exports to the U.S. expected, businesses should prepare for tighter supply of fresh and frozen fillets. The continued demand for whole salmon presents an important market opportunity.