The Smallest August Supply Bump in Three Years — And Salmon Prices Fell Anyway

Well-boat activity rose 12% this week, the mildest seasonal pickup in three years. In the two Augusts before, a much bigger jump still came with rising prices. This time, price fell instead.

What happened

Well-boat stops at Norwegian salmon sites rose to 440 in the week of 10–16 August, up 12.5% from the week before (391). That's the same seasonal pickup that shows up every August as more fish move toward harvest — but it's the mildest one in three years: the same week-on-week jump was +25% in 2024 and +34% in 2025. Fresh whole salmon price, meanwhile, dropped to 73.76 NOK/kg (preliminary) from 76.01 the week before — the first weekly decline after three straight weeks of gains.

Why it matters

That's the part that breaks the pattern. Well-boat stops are an early signal of harvest activity at Norwegian salmon sites, not a measure of shipped volume — but in this same week-32-to-33 window, the two have moved together the past two years: fresh whole export volume rose 3.5% in 2024 and 5.6% in 2025, alongside the bigger well-boat pickups, and price still firmed both times. This year the well-boat pickup was smaller (+12.5%), fresh whole export volume in that same window barely moved (+0.1%), and price dropped 3% anyway. Whatever's driving the price move, it isn't a surge in shipped salmon — the volume simply isn't there this year the way it was in 2024 and 2025.

What happens next

This is only the third August we can run this comparison for — an early read, worth building on rather than leaning on too hard this soon. In 2024 and 2025, a bigger well-boat pickup came with a bigger jump in shipped fresh whole volume, and price still held up. The thing worth watching now is whether this year's lighter pattern continues — a smaller well-boat pickup, closer-to-flat fresh whole exports, and softer price — or whether this week was a one-off wobble. One relevant data point from this week: Mowi, Norway's largest producer, said it isn't expecting supply growth in the second half of the year — consistent with a lighter supply cycle than the past two summers, not a flood. Buyers with flexibility on timing may want to see next week's figures before locking in near-term contracts.

Is this the start of a more price-sensitive August — or a one-week wobble that reverses once the preliminary numbers firm up?

We track well-boat activity in real time, a signal of our own, about a week before it shows up in the official export numbers. The full weekly breakdown — by region, by company — is available through the Oceans of Data API.

Data: Oceans of Data, well-boat and weekly export data, week ending 16 August 2026. Week 33 price is preliminary.