The Smallest August Supply Bump in Three Years, and Salmon Prices Fell Anyway

Well-boat activity rose 12% this week, the mildest seasonal pickup in three years. In the two Augusts before, a much bigger jump still came with rising prices. This time, price fell instead.

What happened

Well-boat stops at Norwegian salmon sites rose to 440 in the week of 10 to 16 August, up 12.5% from the week before (391). That's the same seasonal pickup that shows up every August as more fish move toward harvest, but it's the mildest one in three years: the same week-on-week jump was +25% in 2024 and +34% in 2025. Fresh whole salmon price, meanwhile, dropped to 73.76 NOK/kg (preliminary) from 76.01 the week before, the first weekly decline after three straight weeks of gains.

Why it matters

That's the part that breaks the pattern. Well-boat stops are an early signal of harvest activity at Norwegian salmon sites, not a measure of shipped volume, but in this same week-32-to-33 window the two have moved together the past two years: fresh whole export volume rose 3.5% in 2024 and 5.6% in 2025, alongside the bigger well-boat pickups, and price still firmed both times. This year the well-boat pickup was smaller (+12.5%), fresh whole export volume in that same window barely moved (+0.1%), and price dropped 3% anyway. Whatever's driving the price move, it isn't a surge in shipped salmon: the volume simply isn't there this year the way it was in 2024 and 2025.

What happens next

This is only the third August we can run this comparison for, an early read, worth building on rather than leaning on too hard this soon. In 2024 and 2025, a bigger well-boat pickup came with a bigger jump in shipped fresh whole volume, and price still held up. The thing worth watching now is whether this year's lighter pattern continues (a smaller well-boat pickup, closer-to-flat fresh whole exports, and softer price) or whether this week was a one-off wobble. One relevant data point from this week: Mowi, Norway's largest producer, said it isn't expecting supply growth in the second half of the year, consistent with a lighter supply cycle than the past two summers, not a flood. Buyers with flexibility on timing may want to see next week's figures before locking in near-term contracts.

Is this the start of a more price-sensitive August, or a one-week wobble that reverses once the preliminary numbers firm up?

We track well-boat activity in real time, a signal of our own, about a week before it shows up in the official export numbers. The full weekly breakdown, by region and by company, is available through the Oceans of Data API.

Data: Oceans of Data, well-boat and weekly export data, week ending 16 August 2026. Week 33 price is preliminary.