Salmon Prices Are Rising. In Kroner, They're Still Below Last Year.

What the Chart Shows

Norwegian salmon export prices are climbing again. In week 43, fresh whole salmon rose 3.4% to NOK 76.69/kg. That is the second weekly gain in a row and the highest price since late May. In euros, it rose 4.7%, to €7.27/kg.

Zoom out one year and the picture changes. In kroner, the price is 2.2% below week 43 last year. In euros, it is 8.8% above.

Why It Matters

The recovery is real: the kroner price is up 12.6% from its June low. But a rising price is not the same as a high price. In kroner, salmon has been cheaper than last year for seven weeks in a row. In euros, it has been more expensive for the last four.

The difference is the krone, up 11.2% against the euro in a year. At last year's exchange rate, this week's salmon would cost €6.53/kg. That is less than the €6.68/kg it cost in the same week last year.

And prices are rising with more fish, not less. Norway exported 10.2% more fresh whole salmon than in the same week last year.

What to Watch

Last year, the kroner price climbed to NOK 87.60/kg by week 47. This year, the week 43 price stands at NOK 76.69. Reaching last year's week 47 level would require a further 14.2% increase.

November will show whether the recovery in kroner can close the gap with last year, or whether the year-on-year increase in euros remains largely a currency story.

Is salmon getting expensive, or is the krone?

Source: Oceans of Data, based on official Norwegian export numbers.